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Is Renault the new team to beat? - The Heretic reviews the Australian GP and previews the Malaysian GP. Read the article here.
Then post your comments on the article.

Well I am new to this board, some of the posters know me an will recognize the following (albeit a little edited versions).

Australia review:

Australia gave us a decent race, not especially good, but not especially bad either. Mostly it looked like most races the last 5 seasons. A start, a couple of good moves of line by some, the leader running his own for the full race, and some fine driving by a few down the field.

Giancarlo Fisichella has never been highly rated by me, but I really think that he by this race weekend silenced all nay-sayers, me included. The mark of a front running F1 driver is that once he is in a seat that can seriously battle for the win, he does, this weekend gave Fisichella the first chance of doing so, he took pole and led every single lap of the race.

Faultless and to some boring.

Not to me, I marvel at all good racing, and I have no problems in admitting that all these seasons, I was wrong about Fisichella.

The rain during first qualifying made for a jumpeld grid. I can not see this as anything bad, on the contrary it force the low qualifiers to actually race, and with both Rubens Barichello and Fernando Alonso powering to the podium from starting outside the top-10, they showed that it was possible.

In general it is dangerous to generalize, but I see a number of ?significants? from the race.

1) - Renault is for real in 2005. They have the car, then engine and the driver to battle for the WDC and WCC title all season.
2) - Ferrari is not as far back as some have suggested they would be, they obviously have the drivers, and getting a second spot with the F2004M updated 2004 car can only make the rest of the field worried.
3) - McLaren is also for real, the events of the race made them look worse than they are, but also highlighted that in order to succeed in 2005; you need to keep the car on the track. Montoya allegedly ruined his own race by going of track, lapping a Jordan. Raikkonen made the race difficult for himself by letting the engine die on him, and then later bounced a little too hard on the curbs, breaking the bargeboard. Still managed 8th, and was fast.
4) - Williams did poorly, relatively speaking. Webber was overtaken by Coulthard in the first 200 meters, and he was unable to wrest the spot back from him the rest of the way. This could be read as Webber not being quite what we thought him to be, or the Williams not being quite what it should be as a 2005 challenger. I think that we may be looking at a mix.
5) - Red Bull had a dream debut as a team. David Coulthard was strong all weekend, in a sense his performance showed why McLaren employed him for 10 seasons. He is a very good driver who in the right car can battle it out with most others. The Red Bull package seem relatively well-balanced, easy to driver, with plenty grunt and a driver pairing (threeing with Liuzzi) that will bring out the best in each other. Coulthard is for the first time in his career the undisputed team leader, and that doubtless helped him yesterday. I think that Red Bull management is very happy that they ended signing him.
6) - BAR is in trouble. Jenson Button managed some relatively fast lapping at one point, but overall they are in shambles, All the good they build under Richards have been wasted, this will be a LOOOOOONNNGGGG season for BAR, and Takuma Sato showed what he really is, a mediocre driver who was made to look much better than he really is by a very good package in 2004.
7) Sauber is in trouble. Villeneuve is nowhere; he had a fluke 4th gridspot and immediately fell down thought the field, being a mobile chicane all the way down to an eventual 14th spot in the classification. Massa started 20th and still ended 5 spots in front of Villeneuve. They will be lucky to score any points this season.
- Toyota is in trouble. The car has the same problems that it had in 2004, eating rear tires in about 14 laps. This is a big problem under rules, where the tires need to last 300 km. Trulli fell backwards from an initial 2nd, and Ralf battled problems all day. They will introduce a B-version latest by Imola.
9) - Jordan actually did very well, obviously no points, but steady driving from both drivers who did not do anything wrong, and did not get too much in the way when being lapped.
10) - Minardi???. Poul Stoddard has managed to kill my longstanding backing of the team. His behaviour in connection with the Australian Grand Prix is inexcusable, and regrettably I will not be able to look quite as fondly on them until Stoddard sells out.

Malaysia preview

Less than a week to go, so commenting and prediction hat on. Some sites are threatening / promising mixed weather conditions, rain, thunder humid and hot, sticky and wet.

Conventional wisdom (obviously not all that is cracked up to be), make Bridgestone shod cars favourites to gain if the conditions necessitate monsoon tires during the race. And I still consider Michael Schumacher the undisputed rainmeister in the current field. It would be nice for Michael Schumacher and his challenge for the WDC, to win in Malaysia, and despite my open mind, I will guess him as the winner in each an every race of the season.

Malaysia will give us the second race weekend for the majority of the cars. I have tried finding an official listing of which drivers must keep their engine, and which can decide to race with a new one; However so far no luck. A number of the teams make a direct listing difficult, since they may decide to race an old engine, in order not to lock them up for Bahrain. This seems to be the case for Michael Schumacher, and possibly the two BAR drivers as well.

On race form Renault should line up as the favourites for both pole and win, but since both Renault?s raced the full Australian race, they may show us the dreaded engine failures that have been predicted by the nay-Sayers to the new engine rules.

BAR showed the world, how the FIA have once more managed to write rules brimful with loopholes. Unless the rule is re-written, we can expect that the first 8 in a race will finish, and the rest will pile into the pits at the last lap to retire. I do not (anymore) subscribe to the idea of ?intent of rules?. The rules are there, whatever they allow, or do not specifically outlaw is an open invitation to the teams. Obviously this mean that zero is saved on engine cost, and arguably it actually increase the costs overall.

Why FIA in their wisdom could not just have phrased the rule more or less like

?Any car classified, must start the following race with the engine it finished the race with. In the event that the engine expire within the last 5% of the race distance, making this impossible. The car will be penalised 10 spots on the grid after qualifying 1 and 2?.

Nice and short, yes sometimes a car could retire within sights of the flag, and be heavily penalised, however the idea were for the engine manufactures to build engines that would last. So that is a bad break, and over the course of a season it evens out. Some drivers in my opinion are ?car breakers?, and I have zero problems in having them pay for that.

Even if Michael Schumacher starts with his Australia race engine I see him winning in Malaysia, but despite my misgivings in regard the strength of Renault I also see them as a force.

The Heretic's article was close to my views, except that I see Michael Schumacher in a different light.

I disagree that BAR with the current ar can be a force in Malaysia, and regardless of good press and a British F3 championship I really do not rate Sato at all.

Williams does have a faster car than Red Bull, but in this day and age overtaking on the track is still way to difficult, so if a driver is taken at the start he will find it very difficult to get past in a move for position.

Ferrari and Renault were much meuch faster than all others in the pits, it is the usual story of fast in- outlaps and the strategy timed to perfection. It continue to boggle the mind how the other teams on average give up 3 seconds per race to Ferrari and Renault i that department. Overtaking is scarce as it is.

The rest should really work on getting this area fixed.

i really like the Heretic's review!
i onmy disagree, as K-D does, with BAR. I see them going behind Red Bull in malaysia (williams ahead of both).
I don't see Shumierda winning Malaysia, he knows that the 2004M is too slow for that, only good luck could put him up.

Good article K-D but what is this about Michael winning every race of the season ? Isn't that blind faith ? Just because he won in the past doesn't mean he'll win in the future.

In the last 4 races, he won once
The odds are stacked against you

I agree with the Heretic and sgd, Michael won't shape. As for luck, he's had heaps of good luck in the past. Let him have heaps of bad luck for a change

K-D, Fisichella wasn't under pressure in Melbourne. He needs a few good performances to show that he is championship material

Irvine won races in a Ferrari but was never considered championship material

Alonso will demoralise Fisichella. You watch!

The 04 Ferrari was so far in front that it would have been surprising to see many cars ahead of them. Many so called critics though predicted Ferrari to continue dominating. That includes the F1 Racing Magazine experts and many others

I was surprised by Red Bull too but like Fisichella, we'll need to see how good they are over a few races

I think you are underrating both BAR and Sauber. BAR got it wrong in Melbourne and maybe will also struggle in Malaysia but they'll be back up there soon. Sauber will improve but only with Massa. It is sad to see Villeneuve being beaten like that but he can only blame himself.

If we have a monsoon then yes Bridgestone will have an advantage but if it is drying track, the Michelins gain a clear advantage.

Assuming it is dry, the Bridgestones will melt!

The single engine rule should be any car classified cannot change the engine without a penalty.
Or give the top 12 points

Why do you think Renault will suffer from engine trouble ? What about the others ?

Graham Ross wrote:K-D, Fisichella wasn't under pressure in Melbourne. He needs a few good performances to show that he is championship material

Fisichella drover a "Michael Schumacher race" - The knock on MS is often that he is lucky, have a dominat car, is able to pull away from the field, that a monky could drive the cars.

What I mean is, that starting from Pole or the front is important, and as Fisichella showed you do control the race when in front. All others are playing catchup, but the driver in front if in a truly frontruning car will power away from the field.

Irvine NEVER managed a performance like Fisichella in Melbourne, that is the big difference between them.

Alonso will demoralise Fisichella. You watch!

He will be better than Fisichella.... Absolutely.

If Michael Schumacher retires, I will immediately jump over and become a Fernando Alonso fanboy. He is in my opinion the one driver that is best suited to take over as the dominant driver after Michael Schumacher.

I think you are underrating both BAR and Sauber. BAR got it wrong in Melbourne and maybe will also struggle in Malaysia but they'll be back up there soon. Sauber will improve but only with Massa. It is sad to see Villeneuve being beaten like that but he can only blame himself.

I may be underrating BAR, Sauber no way.

Why do you think Renault will suffer from engine trouble ? What about the others ?

I don't think that renault will suffer, I just think that they by finishing first and thrid have strained their engines more than any other team, and that they have the potential to have a harder time finishing with two cars in Malaysia.

I still don't know who will actually start with new, and who with used engines. Seems that Ferrari may start with two used engines as well, and we know that McLaren will.

K-D wrote:I still don't know who will actually start with new, and who with used engines. Seems that Ferrari may start with two used engines as well, and we know that McLaren will.

Only Albers, Heidfeld, M Schumacher and the 2 BAR's qualify for new engines without penalty. The rest have to use the old engines otherwise they are penalised.

It is likely that Michael will also use the old engine so he can race the F2005 if Ferrari decide to introduce it in Bahrain. He's the only one considering using the old engine of those who can use a new engine without penalty

I would say that Gian Carlo didnt stress his engine too much, whereas Fernando pushed as hard as he could. So it is obvious who may struggle on reliability at RENAULT. I still think Alonso is the one to chase home Michael(in an ultra reliable FERRARI) at Sepang just in front of Kimi...........Dont be fooled, if you want a good bet on the winner, dont look past the Champ, especially as the weather seems to be unsteady.

To K-D: Fully agree with you, except that I can see Felipe doing pretty well this year with the SAUBER(6th-8th), probably he will beat the RED BULLs quite regularly. As for Jaques I cant believe he lost his tremendous ability but it has to be said that ever after his (first) 2 great years at WILLIAMS he didnt show anything extra.

Re. the Champ after Michael, I cant see anyone dominating the sport like himself or Senna. The others who appeared to be his successors have shown serious flaws incl. Juan Pablo, Kimi and Fernando. They all seem to lack consistency and the ability to compensate for a weaker car. Michael, Senna and Prost showed not only supreme speed but also consistency and exceptional performances with only the 2nd or 3rd best package.

One that is underrated big time is Rubens, dont be surprised if he becomes WDC one day. Admittedly it probably wont happen with FERRARI as long as Michael drives.

Pretty much agree with most of what's been said but find it a little hasty to jump to conclusions about entire season on basis of definitely peculiar race. In first place, Melbourne's a lovely city, but the race isn't held on an F1 circuit; it's regular streets. In second place, FIA has screwed up qualifying to the point that we could use a lottery and get results just as fair and probably more "interesting."

Assuming the weather is reasonably consistent, expect to find Ferrari on the front row in Maylasia, but won't be surprised to see a MacLaren or two in contention as well. Benneton, oops, I mean Renault will certainly be near the front and I am very happy to see Giancarlo finally in a competitive machine! As good as Fernando is, though, I don't see him able to keep up with either of the MacLaren drivers.

I don't know who is worse: J.V. in the Sauber or little brother in the Toyota; in any case, if there were any justice these guys would be in Minardis.

I am greatly cheered by Red Bull's good fortune; could we be seeing a return to the old Cosworth Grunt? If so, doesn't Eddie Jordan look the fool in his efforts to land Honda power?

Poor Jenson; his career appears headed in the D.C. direction: always a bridesmaid never... Honda, apparently, learned nothing from the Ford fiasco.

The only last thing of [possibly remote] interest is Fiat's money problems: how soon will this affect Ferrari?

So. For the race this week end: I hope to see the real drivers fighting it out up front: Giancarlo, Kimi, Michael, and JPM.

cheers, Jim Watt

Hi Jim,

some good points there. But Rubens not worth mentioning? Always one for the top 4 and well capable of holding his own against e.g.Gian Carlo.

What makes me wonder is why Ralf gets so little recommendation as a pretty fast driver. He always looked decent enough against his teammates e.g. Gian Carlo, Juan Pablo. I agree he may have missed some chances though, and time will tell about the move to TOYOTA. At least I expect him to collect more points than Jarno this year.

May the weekend come.................

about future champ...
Alonso in not a champ. just remember the first half of 2004... trulli did what ever he wanted with Alonso...too inconsistent.
Kimi and JPM have also consistency problems (more related to their cars consistency prblems) but anyway much rarely than Alonso, I see them as the future Champs!!!
and both in McLaren this year make this team my DREAM TEAM!!!!

GO McLaren!!!!!!!!!!!!!

guys you are forgetting this is only year 3 for alonso plus the year with minardi and he has already won poles and fastest laps and a race

who else in the field acheived a start like this ?

if you care to look at senna or michael records they didnt win the championship from first year ???

trulli last year, 2 races alonso started from the back because errors in qualifying and in monaco he crashed when ralf closed the door
he is very young and if he doesnt make mistakes he wont learn but after those 2 mistakes in qualifying he didnt make any

alonso will win the championship this year

For starters there is little evidence, other than last years performance, that Bridgestone is still better in the wet. Surely Michelin has been working on that?

I hear what you all say about Ferrari having a chance and they can not be discounted. But if Ferrari felt that way too why are they rolling the new car out sooner than planned?

Ferrari took a reasonable gamble. They were tops in reliability in 2004 and heaps faster. It is reasonable to think that the other teams will struggle to haul that in over four months, but they did. so now Ferrari are on to plan B. They may win races again this year but I will be surprised if it is in the 2004 car.

Jim, Fiat's financial problems will affect Ferrari. It has to. We only have to wonder when by.

One poor performance from BAR is too little to discount their 2004 record. Similarly, a slightly better performance from McLaren is also not much to go on. I feel that the performance of McLaren, Red Bull, Williams and BAR in Melbourne told us too little. As Jim said a lottery determined the start.

I do not think that either of the Renaults have stressed engines. Certainly no more than Ferrari. Both teams starting with used engines should level that playing field.

Melbourne told us nothing about tyre wear, unless it is that on cooler days only softer compounds suffered. We still do not know which tyres are better, but it is unlikely that they will be identical. Tyres is still, in my opinion, the wild card.

All agree!!
but BAR again... what about the winter test which told us a lot of truths about Renault, Willimas, Mclarens, F2004M, etc...?? so about BAR performance there was quite poor wasn't it? and reliability...
anyway... maybe you're right...