Greetings Ed & fellow fans:
Interestingly enough the last two pole sitters at Bahrain managed only the bottom step of the podium
(Kubica in the BMW/Sauber in '08 & Trulli in the Toyota last year).
And Bahrain, so far, has pretty much belonged to the first three rows on the grid, which suggests that we can't expect a lot of overtaking in the desert.
Now you COULD, as team principal, put all your eggs into the qualifying basket by going with as light a load as possible, & a 'qualifying set-up' -- hoping that when you fill the tank you'll be able to overcome the handling problems presented by a car full of fuel by letting your driver 'hang on' by blocking any overtakers.
There is also, I think, some guessing going on about how little you can make your front brake air (cooling) ducts without losing the breaks before the race is over.
So. My guess is that Ross Braun will roll the dice and put Shuey as high in qualifying as he dares and let Nico use a more conservative race set up, hoping that he will be able to move up as high into the points as possible (maybe seventh or eighth?)
Fernando Alonso in a competitive car (which the Ferrari definitely is) can be counted on to move up two or three spots no matter who is in front of him, so Ferrari will probably be happy if he lines up anywhere in the top six.
I believe both he and Massa will be happy to let the pole go for this race in favor of having the chance to embarrass either Michael or Lewis or both.
However the teams decide to pursue qualifying, it is evident that the first three rows will consist in, probably, two Ferraris, at least one Mercedes (Shuey's) and one McLaren (Hambone's) and I'm going to say two Red Bull's. Frank Williams may also try to get Rubens in the mix --and he may even go for the pole (remember last year's Williams performances), but I can't see them finishing any better than seventh! Sutil has a fast car and if he's lucky, he may do well. But I'm going to say that poor Robert Kubica is going to be lucky to be in the points.
It is, of course, still too early to really pick the pole n' 10 (TEN! OMG, I had enough trouble with EIGHT!!) but just for fun on this slow afternoon, I'm going to try:
I'm going to award the pole to Lewis Hamilton; I think McLaren is desperate to embarrass Mercedes.
And for the race:
1. Fernando Alonso, Ferrari ... on his way to a third WDC!!
2. Sebastien Vettel, RedBull ... and he'll be trying all season to spoil Fernando's plans!
3. Lewis Hamilton, McLaren ... the car is fast, the driver is good, but...
4. Michael Schumacher, Mercedes ... No number eight for Michael, I'm afraid; the competition is just too fierce
5. Felipe Massa, Ferrari ... little phil will be chasing his team-mate all year
6. Mark Webber, Red Bull ... I hope I'm wrong, bc I love Mark... but I don't think this will be his year
7. Jenson Button, McLaren ... he'll be scratching his head a lot this year
8. Nico Rosberg, Mercedes ... at least he'll be doing better than Adrien!
9. Rubens Barrichello, Wms. ... not much hope for either of the Brazilians this year
10. Robert Kubica, Renault ... I'm starting to think his career is going to be more like Webber's than Vettel's!
And boy is this hard to do!! I think Felipe may be able to get past Shuey, but I can't see Jenson or the Webbo doing so
... and Rubens & Kubica: forget it!
Just sorry I have to wait two more weeks!
Jim Watt