Spain Review / Monaco Preview - The Heretic

[Ed]

Tyres should not be an issue - Ferrari could win - The Heretic reviews the Spanish GP and previews the Monaco GP. Read the article here.
Then post your comments on the article in this thread.

[K-D]

I like to be confirmed right.

Reading this fine piece, Mr. Heretic confirm all that pleasured your with yesterday.

Grand, electrifying and one of the real drivers tracks.

GO MICHAEL!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[alonsofan]

but the heretic thinks alonso and renault will win in monaco

[K-D]

but the heretic thinks alonso and renault will win in monaco

Yes he does, but he also think that Michael could win. This run contrary to a number of contrite poster on this board.

[JayVee]

Who is contrite ?

Michael will NOT win this race. Nothing to be contrite about
Just simple logic

The Heretic must be trying to please everyone

[K-D]

Who is contrite ?

Michael will NOT win this race. Nothing to be contrite about
Just simple logic

The Heretic must be trying to please everyone

Not speaking t of you Mam.

But "logic" does not make that certainty, may be that relative performance sofar this season, indicathe that he will have trouble in placing himslef sufficiently high on the grid to acheive a win.

But "logic" does not mandate either or. I have given mys suggestion to how he will win, so I am in the clear. If he does more or less following my script I was right all along. Should he fail to win, I can conjure a reasonable explanation in no time, taking the actual events as they unfolded.



These numbers support my post explaining how Michael can win on Sunday:

14
5
13
9
11
8
7
10

Maybe should have been part of one of Fluffy's quizzes - Can you guess what it is?? Can anyone??

[JayVee]

Not speaking t of you Mam.

But "logic" does not make that certainty, may be that relative performance sofar this season, indicathe that he will have trouble in placing himslef sufficiently high on the grid to acheive a win.

But "logic" does not mandate either or. I have given mys suggestion to how he will win, so I am in the clear. If he does more or less following my script I was right all along. Should he fail to win, I can conjure a reasonable explanation in no time, taking the actual events as they unfolded.



These numbers support my post explaining how Michael can win on Sunday:

14
5
13
9
11
8
7
10

Maybe should have been part of one of Fluffy's quizzes - Can you guess what it is?? Can anyone??

My simple logic is that Michael going out early will qualify around 14th on Saturday and whatever startegy he goes for it will be impossible for him to win. (Barring a massive pileup then he could get lucky!!)

But yes as this is a future event, no can be 100% certain but I am 99.9% certain he won't win.

The numbers, why would I try to find an explanation that supports something I don't believe will happen

But using simple maths

14 - 5 - 13 + 9 + 11 - 8 - 7 = 1

So 10 points

[K-D]

[quote="JayVee"]...

14
5
13
9
11
8
7
10

Is the qualifying position of the drivers finishing 1 though 8 in the 1996 Monaco Grand Prix.....

I fully understand that the circumstances during that race was not the same as what we are to expect this Sunday, but proof positive that you can win from way back on the Monaco grid.

[sgd]

but the heretic thinks alonso and renault will win in monaco

Yes he does, but he also think that Michael could win. This run contrary to a number of contrite poster on this board.

IT'S ME!!!!!!!

[Jim Watt]

Sorry to be delayed in responding Heretic, but I didn't fine your posting until Saturday when I came down to my office to find out the First Round Qualifying results.

I picked Kimi for the pole so that part came out well enough for me... but I also picked Michael to win and for that to happen one would imagine a tornado would have to strike the track and eliminate the first ten runners!

I am baffled, but not surprised, that JPM got demoted to the rear; actually, though, that kind of behavior is typical of MS --and he never gets penalized, does he? Maybe because he's less obvious about it?

I still don't think Fernando will be there at the end; I picked him for 5th and my reason is the same, old, "psychological" one: I think he's pushing too hard and will take himself out. Fisi should finish higher than his mate.

I like DC rather more than the Webbo, though most of the punters on this list serve prefer the Aussie whom I rate, right now, as a less talented JPM rather than the next Fisichella. Apparently what you guessed for Toyota has come true, since little brother managed to queer not only his own, but his mate's chances of getting a position.

but to return to my title. You think Ferrari's troubles can all be attributed to the tyre maker. And I have to say last season's BAR turnaround seems to support this kind of speculation. But don't you think some of it is also sheer fatigue on the part of the marvelous team? From Seven Time Champion MS, to Jean Todt to Ross Braun, couldn't the strain of trying to stay on top of this circus on all of these folks' together add up to a few thousands of a second when the hammer is down and the clock is running? And what about financial problems at FIAT? Could the money tap be running a little slower for the Red Cars?

I love Ferrari unreasonably. So unreasonably I would cheer for them if they were being driven by a pair of backwoods taxi hacks and powered by old cosworths. But I am afraid this week is the last time I'm picking a red car for a podium finish. I mean I'm slipping down so low in the Pole N 8 ratings that I can't even tell my wife any more where I am relative to the people in the know like yourself.

Cheers and enjoy the race tomorrow. Wouldn't it be fun if someone completely unexpected took the top step? Someone like DC? He could retire forthwith, covered with glory!

Jim Watt

[The Heretic]

Hi,

I read all the banter with much amusement, but sorry to disapoint: I agree with Jim - it will take a cataclysmic event for Michael to win now. He is almost 3 seconds behind the running for pole - a bad place to recover from seeing that he even admits that the Ferrari is not good in single laps.

If I were to write my little bit now would not have been that optimistic but do not forget that he may improve a little today and providing that he does not end up behind a slow car he may stay in touch with the field. From there he could at least score points.

Alonso is in great shape if the grid does not change because he can get ahead on traction or launch control alone. After that a cool head could keep the field behind him to the first stops.

If Reikkonen gets into the lead it is over bar mishaps. Michael will be bunched up behind Renault even if he is fast in race trim and the McLaren is very nimble and fast.

Jim, what makes you think that you are alone in losing rankings on Polen8? Ferrari's performance has queered my pics too!

There is no doubt in my mind that you are right to some degree on your theory that it is more than tyres at Ferrari. I know they expect to be financially independent (as a road car manufacturer) but there must be some tightening of the belt. They will be superhuman if they are immune to burnout or going stale, BUT two left tyre punctures on the same car in the same race tells me that the outside rubber of Michael's car could not take the heat.

DC winning? Don't joke. How many times did we see carnage in Monaco that put some strange choices on the podium?

Enjoy the race.

[Julian Mayo]

I think Schuey has just lost the title, and Kimi is starting to think about the reality of winning it

[F1greyhound]

Looks like it might get pretty tight for Fernando and RENAULT. One thing that will be interesting is if Flavio can get around teamorders, he will certainly hope a situation of Fisico leading Fernando wont occur...

Michael and FERRARI have a slim chance but they must bounce back with a few wins now which will be hard against MCLAREN. Considering that Fernando might finish behind 2 or 3 other cars Michael could make up some 18-20 points in the next 3 GP, as might(more likely) Kimi.

However I expect the following scenario in the next 3 races, based on significant improvement of Bridgestones Qualifying and ongoing tyrewear at RENAULT:

1 Michael
2 Kimi
3-6 Juan Pablo, Rubens, Mark, Nick, Jenson, Jarno or Ralf
7 Fernando

That way points standings would be

1 Fernando 55
2 Kimi 52
3 Michael 42

We would be up for a real open WDC............

[Julian Mayo]

Looks like it might get pretty tight for Fernando and RENAULT. One thing that will be interesting is if Flavio can get around teamorders, he will certainly hope a situation of Fisico leading Fernando wont occur...

Michael and FERRARI have a slim chance but they must bounce back with a few wins now which will be hard against MCLAREN. Considering that Fernando might finish behind 2 or 3 other cars Michael could make up some 18-20 points in the next 3 GP, as might(more likely) Kimi.

However I expect the following scenario in the next 3 races, based on significant improvement of Bridgestones Qualifying and ongoing tyrewear at RENAULT:

1 Michael
2 Kimi
3-6 Juan Pablo, Rubens, Mark, Nick, Jenson, Jarno or Ralf
7 Fernando

That way points standings would be

1 Fernando 55
2 Kimi 52
3 Michael 42

We would be up for a real open WDC............

Unless Schuey qualifies no1 in every race from here, it's goodnight to him. if Kimi is ahead in qualifying, and Schuey has to fight with Alonso, the toyotas, Mark and Nick, he will not be able to make the ground up.
One of the problems Ferrari have, is learning to implement strategy while they are mid-field. They are used to a strategy, or strategies, that revolve around a front runner.
The scary thing to come out of Monaco, for All the other teams is that Kimi was running heavy, and ran away from them on cold tyres